Birmingham’s economy is outpacing national trends with rapid job creation forecast to continue over the next five years.
However, labour market analysis by leading prison education provider Novus has also found that the city faces a growing mismatch between labour market demand and workforce skills—especially in key sectors.
Between 2019 and 2024, Birmingham added 75,218 jobs marking a 14.6% increase, far exceeding the national growth rate of 5.4%. Looking ahead, a further 33,351 jobs are expected to be created by 2029—meaning job growth is set to outstrip population growth by more than 22,000 roles, highlighting a looming skills shortfall.
High growth sectors include: Accommodation and Food Services; Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities; Information and Communication; Human Health Activities; and Construction.
Despite ranking in the top 10 for growth – and being identified by the Government as a priority for driving economic growth – Construction remains below average for workforce size, indicating a clear need for targeted training and recruitment strategies.
Meanwhile, Electricity, Gas, Steam and Air Conditioning Supply—though small in workforce size—ranks first for wages per worker, reflecting its strategic importance in creating high-paying jobs.
Peter Cox, managing director of Novus, said: "Birmingham is adding jobs at a remarkable pace, and that’s a huge positive. But to truly benefit from this momentum, we must ensure that local people—including those furthest from the labour market—have the skills needed to step into these roles.
“Novus works with people who are in custody and are the furthest from the labour market but have the potential to be rehabilitated by acquiring the skills required to secure stable employment upon completion of their sentence. To capitalise on its growth potential it will be crucial to tap into this potential workforce.”
In addition to identifying high growth areas, Novus analysis also found that Birmingham’s wider skills profile presents additional challenges: while 42% of residents hold higher education qualifications (Levels 7–9), this is 4% below the national average. Furthermore, the proportion of people holding apprenticeships is just 0.5% and 10% of the population has no qualifications at all.
Cox added: “While Birmingham is creating an impressive number of new job roles, it is also facing a critical skills shortage that risks undermining any potential growth opportunities. As such, we are committed to ensuring that the provision of prison education programmes is aligned to the needs of the regional economy. These programmes not only reduce reoffending but also support offenders to gain skills that will help them meet employer demand.
"This will require integration and collaboration between prison education programmes and local skills improvement plans to ensure that as many employers as possible are able to recruit the skilled workers they will require to drive economic success.”
A recent Novus-commissioned survey found that 55% of UK voters believe prisons should focus on rehabilitation, and 60% support using taxpayer money to educate prisoners. When told that reoffending costs the economy £18 billion per year, and that education reduces reoffending by 7.5 percentage points, support for prisoner education rose to 68%.
Cox said: "The 33,000 new jobs forecast for Birmingham by 2029 are a clear opportunity to reduce inequality and boost inclusion. But only if we invest in people—and that includes those currently in prison. By equipping individuals with the right skills, we can help bridge the gap between economic growth and workforce readiness, and ensure Birmingham can capitalise on its economic potential.”
